PML-N's decision to form a chapter in Azad Kashmir might further marginalise the political space of Kashmiris
Azad Kashmir looks ready to host Pakistan Muslim League-N in its political landscape. A series of public and backchannel manoeuvres are being launched by PML-N and its promising local allies to form its chapter in Azad Kashmir. Two parties have reportedly decided to merge in PML-N -- the splinter group of Muslim Conference, commonly known as forward block, led by Raja Farooq Hayder and People Muslim League led by president Barrister Sultan Mahmood Chaudhry.
PML-N chairman, Mian Nawaz Sharif, is reported to have held meetings with several socio-political stakeholders in the region to evaluate different aspects of this initiative before formally announcing it. On the other hand, PML-N spokesman Siddiqul Farooq holds that the decision has already been made by the high command but its announcement is yet to be made. Senator Raja Zafar ul Haq heads the committee which will make detailed presentation before the party's Central Executive Council in the next few weeks.
Sources close to Nawaz Sharif reveal that the top leadership of the party is weighing the options of how to start the initiative. Some members of the party like Raja Zafar ul Haq, Zafar Iqbal Jhagra and Siddiqul Farooq are for establishing the party's branch in AJK. Khawaja Saad Rafique and Khurram Dastgir Khan, however, do not support the decision. Chaudhry Nisar Ali is reportedly undecided in the matter so far.
Nawaz Sharif's decision to extend his party up to Azad Kashmir is questionable especially since the people of Kashmir have no role in Pakistan's domestic politics. Due to the disputed nature of the region, AJK has a separate constitution and governance system. They do not elect representatives for the National Assembly or Senate. No wonder, mainstream parties in Pakistan hardly show any interest in AJK's local politics.
In the mid 1970s, the then prime minister, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, had established People's Party in Azad Kashmir in the backdrop of Simla agreement wherein both Indira Ghandi and Bhutto agreed to solve the Kashmir issue by maintaining status quo. He failed to persuade the local stakeholders to accept province-like status.
Historically, Muslim League has always supported Muslim Conference in AJK politics but when Nawaz Sharif was overthrown by Pervez Musharraf, this changed -- Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan and his son Sardar Attique wasted no time and joined the Musharraf camp. They were rewarded by Musharraf in 2006 state assembly elections when Attique was made PM. During the Lawyers' Movement, Sardar Attique remained a staunch supporter of Musharraf.
When Musharraf was compelled to quit presidency, anti-Attique lobby within the Muslim Conference got an opportunity to dislodge him, just eight months ago. The breakaway faction of Muslim Conference led coalition government comprises People's Party, People Muslim League and MQM. People's Party engineered another split into forward block and made Friends Group within few weeks after the government formation. This sent shock waves into a Muslim Conference's Farooq Hayder camp and ignited intense power struggle within the coalition government which badly affected the government working. Farooq Hadyer group believes that People's Party can sweep upcoming state elections if a broad-based platform is not established to pitch tough resistance against it.
Barrister Sultan Mahmood Chaudhry has long been trying to obtain Nawaz Sharif's support. He left People's Party in 2006 and formed his own People Muslim League expecting support from Chaudhrys of Gujrat. They ditched him at the eleventh hour since establishment had already made Sardar Attique as their prime choice. His nascent party managed to secure only three assembly seats out of 49.
Sultan Mahmood's second choice was Nawaz Sharif to whom he extended full support. Mahmood maintains good socio-political connections in Britain where over half a million people are from Azad Kashmir, mostly from Mirpur division, settled. His wealthy Jatt clan too extended wholehearted support to Barrister Sultan during his long innings in politics without questioning his ideological commitment. Sultan Mahmood made available huge logistic and human resource to PML-N in London when Nawaz Sharif was running anti-Musharraf campaign in exile.
Lord Nazir Ahamd, who is from Mirpur, and a member of House of Lords, has consistently been taking interest not only in Pakistani but also in AJK politics. He, too, became close ally of democratic leadership of Pakistan, particularly Nawaz Sharif. He also backs Sultan Mahmood to get top position in AJK politics. On Lord Nazir's invitation, Nawaz Sharif is going to Mirpur in the first week of October to address a public gathering where he is expected to announce the formation of PML-N.
AJK elections are due in 2011 but the possibility of midterm elections cannot be ruled out due to the fragile working relationship among coalition partners. Political settings in Islamabad have always had enormous impact on AJK elections or set the voting trend. Usually AJK voters follow Islamabad and Punjab's pattern. The southern part of today's AJK is closely knit with the bordering districts of Punjab particularly with Jhelum, Gujrat and Sailkot.
On both sides, the same Jatt cast is settled. On the other hand, central parts of AJK, Poonch division and Muzaffarabad, maintain close ties with the Rawalpindi division and always prefer to develop economic and social bonds in and around Rawalpindi region, due to its geographic proximity. Besides Kashmiri refugees, a huge number of locals, too, relocated their families to Rawalpindi to avail the city's facilities such as education and healthcare. Nine out of 12 refugee seats are also located in Punjab.
In Punjab, PML-N is not only the ruling party but also has a popularity base which would expectedly reflect into AJK's refugees seats provided Muslim League shows interest. If Nawaz Sharif seriously forms PML-N in AJK, it can emerge as a major political contestant within months, says Tariq Naqash, a senior journalist based in Muzaffarabad.
There is some tough opposition in Azad Kahmir and Pakistan to PML-N's decision. A professor at National Defence University Islamabad puts his views in a very interesting way. On the condition of anonymity he states: "It would be the last nail in the coffin of AJK autonomy and the second step would be the breakup of AJK into different pieces to merge them into Rawalpindi and Hazara divisions respectively".
Former prime minister Sardar Attique Ahmad sees this development as "a major departure from the League's historic stand to back Muslim Conference as a regional partner." Chaudhary Latif Abar, Secretary General of Peoples Party's AJK chapter believes it as "an exercise to steal the PPP's turn to rule".
People's Party Azad Kashmir has been caught in a catch 22 position. It is neither satisfied with incumbent PM Sardar Yaqub Khan nor demands for fresh mandate. It fears that in the North of Azad Kashmir, Muslim Conference may give it tough competition while in South, Sultan Mahmood still maintains strong position. Likewise, the Punjab government may not like to give a walkover to PPP in refugees' constituencies situated in the province.
Above all, PPP not only lacks charismatic leadership but its current president Chaudhry Abdul Majid has no potential to run hectic pre-election campaign due to bad health and age factor. In this backdrop, PPP prefers to continue with coalition government instead of pressing for midterm elections. In this grace period PPP would want to put its house in order. However, the fact can't be denied that the party has strong base in different parts of AJK and refugees constituencies. Additionally, anti-incumbency factor can help People's Party, if skillfully exploited, as people have reached to a saturation point to see Muslim Conference-led governments with different name tags in the last eight years.
Establishment has been playing neutral up until now. Mian Nawaz Sharif very clearly mentioned in his meeting with Muslim Conference and People's Muslim League assembly members last week that "those who want to keep open channels with military and intelligence agencies would not have any place in his party," quoted Raja Farooq Hayder. On the other hand, Asif Ali Zardari also maintains strong hold over local party cadre and leadership. It shows that the upcoming AJK election will be a test match between Zardari and Nawaz loyalists which would determine future electoral battles in the rest of the country.
Unfortunately, the era of regional political personalities and parties is about to end. Now, AJK politics will have to follow dictates of Raiwind and Larkana and their space to run local affairs independently will be further marginalised, says Syed Arif Bahar, an expert on AJK affairs. He also believes that PML-N has the potential to positively contribute in regional politics if it introduces new middle class faces. If, however, the same lot overnight becomes Leagues leaders it would be like old wine in a new bottle.
PML-N chairman, Mian Nawaz Sharif, is reported to have held meetings with several socio-political stakeholders in the region to evaluate different aspects of this initiative before formally announcing it. On the other hand, PML-N spokesman Siddiqul Farooq holds that the decision has already been made by the high command but its announcement is yet to be made. Senator Raja Zafar ul Haq heads the committee which will make detailed presentation before the party's Central Executive Council in the next few weeks.
Sources close to Nawaz Sharif reveal that the top leadership of the party is weighing the options of how to start the initiative. Some members of the party like Raja Zafar ul Haq, Zafar Iqbal Jhagra and Siddiqul Farooq are for establishing the party's branch in AJK. Khawaja Saad Rafique and Khurram Dastgir Khan, however, do not support the decision. Chaudhry Nisar Ali is reportedly undecided in the matter so far.
Nawaz Sharif's decision to extend his party up to Azad Kashmir is questionable especially since the people of Kashmir have no role in Pakistan's domestic politics. Due to the disputed nature of the region, AJK has a separate constitution and governance system. They do not elect representatives for the National Assembly or Senate. No wonder, mainstream parties in Pakistan hardly show any interest in AJK's local politics.
In the mid 1970s, the then prime minister, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, had established People's Party in Azad Kashmir in the backdrop of Simla agreement wherein both Indira Ghandi and Bhutto agreed to solve the Kashmir issue by maintaining status quo. He failed to persuade the local stakeholders to accept province-like status.
Historically, Muslim League has always supported Muslim Conference in AJK politics but when Nawaz Sharif was overthrown by Pervez Musharraf, this changed -- Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan and his son Sardar Attique wasted no time and joined the Musharraf camp. They were rewarded by Musharraf in 2006 state assembly elections when Attique was made PM. During the Lawyers' Movement, Sardar Attique remained a staunch supporter of Musharraf.
When Musharraf was compelled to quit presidency, anti-Attique lobby within the Muslim Conference got an opportunity to dislodge him, just eight months ago. The breakaway faction of Muslim Conference led coalition government comprises People's Party, People Muslim League and MQM. People's Party engineered another split into forward block and made Friends Group within few weeks after the government formation. This sent shock waves into a Muslim Conference's Farooq Hayder camp and ignited intense power struggle within the coalition government which badly affected the government working. Farooq Hadyer group believes that People's Party can sweep upcoming state elections if a broad-based platform is not established to pitch tough resistance against it.
Barrister Sultan Mahmood Chaudhry has long been trying to obtain Nawaz Sharif's support. He left People's Party in 2006 and formed his own People Muslim League expecting support from Chaudhrys of Gujrat. They ditched him at the eleventh hour since establishment had already made Sardar Attique as their prime choice. His nascent party managed to secure only three assembly seats out of 49.
Sultan Mahmood's second choice was Nawaz Sharif to whom he extended full support. Mahmood maintains good socio-political connections in Britain where over half a million people are from Azad Kashmir, mostly from Mirpur division, settled. His wealthy Jatt clan too extended wholehearted support to Barrister Sultan during his long innings in politics without questioning his ideological commitment. Sultan Mahmood made available huge logistic and human resource to PML-N in London when Nawaz Sharif was running anti-Musharraf campaign in exile.
Lord Nazir Ahamd, who is from Mirpur, and a member of House of Lords, has consistently been taking interest not only in Pakistani but also in AJK politics. He, too, became close ally of democratic leadership of Pakistan, particularly Nawaz Sharif. He also backs Sultan Mahmood to get top position in AJK politics. On Lord Nazir's invitation, Nawaz Sharif is going to Mirpur in the first week of October to address a public gathering where he is expected to announce the formation of PML-N.
AJK elections are due in 2011 but the possibility of midterm elections cannot be ruled out due to the fragile working relationship among coalition partners. Political settings in Islamabad have always had enormous impact on AJK elections or set the voting trend. Usually AJK voters follow Islamabad and Punjab's pattern. The southern part of today's AJK is closely knit with the bordering districts of Punjab particularly with Jhelum, Gujrat and Sailkot.
On both sides, the same Jatt cast is settled. On the other hand, central parts of AJK, Poonch division and Muzaffarabad, maintain close ties with the Rawalpindi division and always prefer to develop economic and social bonds in and around Rawalpindi region, due to its geographic proximity. Besides Kashmiri refugees, a huge number of locals, too, relocated their families to Rawalpindi to avail the city's facilities such as education and healthcare. Nine out of 12 refugee seats are also located in Punjab.
In Punjab, PML-N is not only the ruling party but also has a popularity base which would expectedly reflect into AJK's refugees seats provided Muslim League shows interest. If Nawaz Sharif seriously forms PML-N in AJK, it can emerge as a major political contestant within months, says Tariq Naqash, a senior journalist based in Muzaffarabad.
There is some tough opposition in Azad Kahmir and Pakistan to PML-N's decision. A professor at National Defence University Islamabad puts his views in a very interesting way. On the condition of anonymity he states: "It would be the last nail in the coffin of AJK autonomy and the second step would be the breakup of AJK into different pieces to merge them into Rawalpindi and Hazara divisions respectively".
Former prime minister Sardar Attique Ahmad sees this development as "a major departure from the League's historic stand to back Muslim Conference as a regional partner." Chaudhary Latif Abar, Secretary General of Peoples Party's AJK chapter believes it as "an exercise to steal the PPP's turn to rule".
People's Party Azad Kashmir has been caught in a catch 22 position. It is neither satisfied with incumbent PM Sardar Yaqub Khan nor demands for fresh mandate. It fears that in the North of Azad Kashmir, Muslim Conference may give it tough competition while in South, Sultan Mahmood still maintains strong position. Likewise, the Punjab government may not like to give a walkover to PPP in refugees' constituencies situated in the province.
Above all, PPP not only lacks charismatic leadership but its current president Chaudhry Abdul Majid has no potential to run hectic pre-election campaign due to bad health and age factor. In this backdrop, PPP prefers to continue with coalition government instead of pressing for midterm elections. In this grace period PPP would want to put its house in order. However, the fact can't be denied that the party has strong base in different parts of AJK and refugees constituencies. Additionally, anti-incumbency factor can help People's Party, if skillfully exploited, as people have reached to a saturation point to see Muslim Conference-led governments with different name tags in the last eight years.
Establishment has been playing neutral up until now. Mian Nawaz Sharif very clearly mentioned in his meeting with Muslim Conference and People's Muslim League assembly members last week that "those who want to keep open channels with military and intelligence agencies would not have any place in his party," quoted Raja Farooq Hayder. On the other hand, Asif Ali Zardari also maintains strong hold over local party cadre and leadership. It shows that the upcoming AJK election will be a test match between Zardari and Nawaz loyalists which would determine future electoral battles in the rest of the country.
Unfortunately, the era of regional political personalities and parties is about to end. Now, AJK politics will have to follow dictates of Raiwind and Larkana and their space to run local affairs independently will be further marginalised, says Syed Arif Bahar, an expert on AJK affairs. He also believes that PML-N has the potential to positively contribute in regional politics if it introduces new middle class faces. If, however, the same lot overnight becomes Leagues leaders it would be like old wine in a new bottle.
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